{"id":13662,"date":"2024-08-21T07:11:09","date_gmt":"2024-08-21T07:11:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.turizaminfo.hr\/?p=13662"},"modified":"2024-08-21T07:22:48","modified_gmt":"2024-08-21T07:22:48","slug":"prihodi-od-turizma-rastu-usporeno","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.turizaminfo.hr\/old\/novosti\/prihodi-od-turizma-rastu-usporeno\/","title":{"rendered":"Prihodi od turizma rastu usporeno"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

O uspje\u0161nosti sezone mnogo \u0107e re\u0107i i ostvareni prihodi od turizma, a analiti\u010dari sredi\u0161nje banke u ovom trenutku procjenjuju da \u0107e oni nastaviti rasti, premda ne dinamikom koja je vi\u0111ena proteklih godina, pi\u0161e Jutarnji<\/a> list<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prema posljednjoj slu\u017ebenoj projekciji Hrvatske narodne banke<\/strong> iz lipnja ove godine, na razini cijele 2024. prihodi od turisti\u010dke potro\u0161nje stranih turista mogli bi porasti za \u010detiri posto ili 600 milijuna eura te dose\u0107i 15,2 milijarde eura. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

U sljede\u0107e dvije godine, u 2025. i 2026., procjenjuju da bi stopa rasta mogla ubrzati na 4,5 posto ako se u obzir uzme projicirani oporavak rasta gospodarstva na glavnim emitivnim tr\u017ei\u0161tima. To podrazumijeva da bi prihodi nagodinu rasli za 680 milijuna eura, na 15,9 milijardi, a godinu potom za 710 milijuna, na 16,6 milijardi eura.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S otvaranjem ekonomija i po\u010detkom putovanja nakon koronakrize turisti\u010dki prihodi su eksplodirali, s dvoznamenkastim stopama rasta. Lani su pove\u0107ani 11,3 posto ili za 1,49 milijardi eura, na 14,6 milijardi eura. Godinu ranije, pak, ostvaren je rekordni skok od 24 posto ili za 2,5 milijardi eura u odnosu na pretkriznu 2019. godinu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Radi se o o\u010dekivanom usporavanju rasta koji je u znatnoj mjeri posljedica baznog efekta, odnosno izrazito sna\u017enog rasta proteklih godina”, isti\u010du u HNB-u. U prvom tromjese\u010dju ove godine, obja\u0161njavaju, prihodi od turisti\u010dke potro\u0161nje nerezidenata porasli su za \u010dak 24,6 posto u odnosu na isto razdoblje lani, ali dostupni visokofrekventni podaci upu\u0107uju da bi rast u drugom tromjese\u010dju trebao primjetno usporiti. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rast prihoda tijekom predsezone i posezone<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

S obzirom na svoj mali udjel, izrazito dobri podaci s po\u010detka godina ne mogu presudno utjecati na rezultat u cijeloj godini. Ipak, u HNB-u vjeruju da bi se mogao ponoviti donekle sli\u010dan obrazac iz prethodne godine, kada je rast prihoda bio primjetno izra\u017eeniji tijekom predsezone i posezone negoli tijekom vrhunca u ljetnim mjesecima.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Svoje projekcije prihoda od turisti\u010dke potro\u0161nje stranih turista temelje na rezultatima makroekonomskog modela, a proizlaze iz analiza cijelog niza visokofrekventnih podataka, od fizi\u010dkih pokazatelja o broju no\u0107enja i dolazaka gostiju ili prometa na autocestama te financijskih pokazatelja poput podataka iz sustava fiskalizacije, podataka o platnim uslugama ili podataka internetskih platformi za posredovanje u uslugama smje\u0161taja.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U protekle dvije godine sredi\u0161nja banka je predvi\u0111ala da \u0107e prihodi rasti po stopi od oko deset posto. To\u010dnost projekcija varira s obzirom na promatrani horizont, odnosno o preostalom vremenu do kraja godine. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lani su na temelju visokofrekventnih podataka do travnja, o\u010dekivanja bila da \u0107e rast prihoda od turisti\u010dke potro\u0161nje nerezidenata u cijeloj pro\u0161loj godini iznositi 13,4 posto, a ostvarenje je u kona\u010dnici iznosilo 11,3 posto. No izrada projekcije u protekloj godini, nagla\u0161avaju, bila je izrazito izazovna zbog primjetnog porasta cijena u djelatnostima smje\u0161taja i ugostiteljstva.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Srpanj bilje\u017ei dobre rezultate<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Najnoviji podaci Dr\u017eavnog zavoda za statistiku o kretanju potro\u0161a\u010dkih cijena u srpnju pokazuju da je najve\u0107i rast i doprinos godi\u0161njoj stopi inflacije od 2,2 posto donijela skupina restorani i hoteli<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kako obja\u0161njavaju analiti\u010dari RBA<\/strong>, restorani i hoteli su ve\u0107 u pro\u0161loj godini dosegnuli gotovo 90 posto prosjeka cijena u europodru\u010dju pa ovogodi\u0161nja sna\u017enija dinamika rasta implicira daljnju konvergenciju prema najrazvijenijim dr\u017eavama i najve\u0107im konkurentima unutar EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S minimalnim padom no\u0107enja turista od 0,6 posto, glavna ekonomistica RBA\u00a0Zrinka \u017divkovi\u0107 Matijevi\u0107<\/strong>\u00a0ocjenjuje da srpanj nikako nije razo\u010darao. Smatra da su podaci u skladu s o\u010dekivanjima te dodaje da bi fokus na privla\u010denje turista trebao svakako biti barem pred i post sezona, ali i razvoj cjelogodi\u0161njeg turizma u skladu s mogu\u0107nostima i kapacitetima lokalnih zajednica. Uz to, isti\u010de kako \u0107e kvaliteta neminovno morati opravdati cijenu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Iako posljednje brojke o dolascima i no\u0107enjima nisu ohrabruju\u0107e, optimisti smatraju da su posrijedi tek produljenje sezone i izmjena strukture gostiju, u skladu sa stanjem ekonomija iz kojih dolaze. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7441,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[45],"tags":[76,1603,303,2151,75],"class_list":["post-13662","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-novosti","tag-casopis-turizam-info","tag-hnb","tag-hrvatska","tag-prihodi-od-turizma","tag-turizam-info"],"gutentor_comment":0,"yoast_head":"\nPrihodi od turizma rastu usporeno - Turizam info<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Prema slu\u017ebenoj projekciji HNB na razini cijele 2024. prihodi od turisti\u010dke potro\u0161nje stranih turista mogli bi porasti za \u010detiri posto\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.turizaminfo.hr\/old\/novosti\/prihodi-od-turizma-rastu-usporeno\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Prihodi od turizma rastu usporeno - 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